What If... The Baby Boomers Were 'Gone'?...

Submitted by SadInAmerica on Sat, 12/26/2009 - 4:36pm.

Cumulative cost of all benefits (36 years)...  Annual cost of Baby Boom benefits (2020-2025)...  Annual cost of benefits after Baby Boom (2026-2043)... 

 

Baby Boom Benefits

A Parametric Analysis (first-order approximation)

Matrix One:

Assume...

(1)   size of cohort is ~76 million (born 1946-1964)

(2)   76 million / 18 years  =  ~4.2 million yearly (linear)

(3)   ~ $1,000 monthly benefit per retiree

(4)   zero death rate 2008-2025 A.D.

Yr   Count   Total Retired   Benefits/yr       Total Benefits   Year

--   -----   -------------  -------------     ----------------  ----

01 x 4.2M  =   4,200,000  x  $12,000/year  =   50,400,000,000.  2008

02 x 4.2M  =   8,400,000  x  $12,000/year  =  100,800,000,000.  2009

03 x 4.2M  =  12,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  151,200,000,000.  2010

04 x 4.2M  =  16,800,000  x  $12,000/year  =  201,600,000,000.  2011

05 x 4.2M  =  21,000,000  x  $12,000/year  =  252,000,000,000.  2012

06 x 4.2M  =  25,200,000  x  $12,000/year  =  302,400,000,000.  2013

07 x 4.2M  =  29,400,000  x  $12,000/year  =  352,800,000,000.  2014

08 x 4.2M  =  33,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  403,200,000,000.  2015

09 x 4.2M  =  37,800,000  x  $12,000/year  =  453,600,000,000.  2016

10 x 4.2M  =  42,000,000  x  $12,000/year  =  504,000,000,000.  2017

11 x 4.2M  =  46,200,000  x  $12,000/year  =  554,400,000,000.  2018

12 x 4.2M  =  50,400,000  x  $12,000/year  =  604,800,000,000.  2019

13 x 4.2M  =  54,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  655,200,000,000.  2020

14 x 4.2M  =  58,800,000  x  $12,000/year  =  705,600,000,000.  2021

15 x 4.2M  =  63,000,000  x  $12,000/year  =  756,000,000,000.  2022

16 x 4.2M  =  67,200,000  x  $12,000/year  =  806,400,000,000.  2023

17 x 4.2M  =  71,400,000  x  $12,000/year  =  856,800,000,000.  2024

18 x 4.2M  =  75,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  907,200,000,000.  2025

                                            ------------------

                                           $8,618,400,000,000.

                                           ===================

Summary:

Cumulative cost of Baby Boom benefits (18 years):  * $8.6 trillion

Annual cost of Baby Boom benefits (year 2025):     * $907 billion


Further analysis must factor in expected death rate...

Matrix Two:

Assume...

(5)   average life expectancy is 75 years (both genders)

Yr   Count   Total Retired   Benefits/yr       Total Benefits   Year

--   -----   -------------  -------------     ----------------  ----

01 x 4.2M  =   4,200,000  x  $12,000/year  =   50,400,000,000.  2008

02 x 4.2M  =   8,400,000  x  $12,000/year  =  100,800,000,000.  2009

03 x 4.2M  =  12,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  151,200,000,000.  2010

04 x 4.2M  =  16,800,000  x  $12,000/year  =  201,600,000,000.  2011

05 x 4.2M  =  21,000,000  x  $12,000/year  =  252,000,000,000.  2012

06 x 4.2M  =  25,200,000  x  $12,000/year  =  302,400,000,000.  2013

07 x 4.2M  =  29,400,000  x  $12,000/year  =  352,800,000,000.  2014

08 x 4.2M  =  33,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  403,200,000,000.  2015

09 x 4.2M  =  37,800,000  x  $12,000/year  =  453,600,000,000.  2016

10 x 4.2M  =  42,000,000  x  $12,000/year  =  504,000,000,000.  2017

11 x 4.2M  =  46,200,000  x  $12,000/year  =  554,400,000,000.  2018

12 x 4.2M  =  50,400,000  x  $12,000/year  =  604,800,000,000.  2019

13 x 4.2M  =  54,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  655,200,000,000.  2020

14 x 4.2M  =  58,800,000

             ( 4,200,000)

              54,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  655,200,000,000.  2021

15 x 4.2M  =  63,000,000

             ( 8,400,000)

              54,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  655,200,000,000.  2022

16 x 4.2M  =  67,200,000

             (12,600,000)

              54,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  655,200,000,000.  2023

17 x 4.2M  =  71,400,000

             (16,800,000)

              54,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  655,200,000,000.  2024

18 x 4.2M  =  75,600,000

             (21,000,000)

              54,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  655,200,000,000.  2025

                                            ------------------

                                           $7,862,400,000,000.

                                           ===================

Summary:

Cumulative cost of Baby Boom benefits (18 years):  * $7.9 trillion

Annual cost of Baby Boom benefits (2020-2025):     * $655 billion

Further analysis must factor in a declining birth rate

after birth control circa 1964:  using the above assumptions,

the 4.2 million who die in 2026 are replaced by a smaller average

number of new retirees.

Matrix Three:

Assume:

(6)   average birth rate drops to 3.2 million per year after 1964

(7)   average death rate stays at 4.2 million per year thru 2039

      when Baby Boom is gone (net -1 million change per year)

Yr   Count   Total Retired   Benefits/yr       Total Benefits   Year

--   -----   -------------  -------------     ----------------  ----

19            54,600,000

             ( 1,000,000)

              53,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  643,200,000,000.  2026

20            52,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  631,200,000,000.  2027

21            51,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  619,200,000,000.  2028

22            50,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  607,200,000,000.  2029

23            49,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  595,200,000,000.  2030

24            48,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  583,200,000,000.  2031

25            47,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  571,200,000,000.  2032

26            46,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  559,200,000,000.  2033

27            45,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  547,200,000,000.  2034

28            44,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  535,200,000,000.  2035

29            43,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  523,200,000,000.  2036

30            42,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  511,200,000,000.  2037

31            41,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  499,200,000,000.  2038

32            40,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  487,200,000,000.  2039

33            40,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  487,200,000,000.  2040

34            40,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  487,200,000,000.  2041

35            40,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  487,200,000,000.  2042

36            40,600,000  x  $12,000/year  =  487,200,000,000.  2043

                                           -------------------

                                          $17,724,000,000,000.

                                          ====================

Summary:

Cumulative cost of all benefits (36 years):              * $17.7 trillion

Annual cost of Baby Boom benefits (2020-2025):            * $655 billion

Annual cost of benefits after Baby Boom (2026-2043)  * $643-439 billion


Sincerely yours,

/s/ Paul Andrew Mitchell, B.A., M.S.

Private Attorney General, Criminal Investigator and

Federal Witness:  18 U.S.C. 1510, 1512-13, 1964(a)

http://www.supremelaw.org/decs/agency/private.attorney.general.htm

http://www.supremelaw.org/index.htm

http://www.supremelaw.org/support.policy.htm

http://www.supremelaw.org/guidelines.htm

 

Paul Andrew Mitchell, B.A., M.S. - December 26, 2009 - source SupremeLaw

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Submitted by SadInAmerica on Sat, 12/26/2009 - 4:36pm.